The US 'annihilated' Russian mercenaries in Syria 4 years ago. But in Ukraine, the stakes are much higher.

Russia attack on Yavoriv base damage — Smoke rises amid damaged buildings after a Russian attack on the Yavoriv military base in western Ukraine on March 13, 2022.
@BackAndAlive/via REUTERS

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has raised fears of direct conflict between the US and Moscow.
Advocates of more aggressive US responses cite previous military encounters to play down the risks.
But experts warn that Russia's involvement raises the stakes and that a clash could quickly escalate.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Western efforts to resupply Ukraine's military and reinforce NATO's eastern flank have raised concerns that a close encounter or accident could escalate into a broader war.

Proponents of increased US assistance or of direct US involvement have played down the likelihood or likely severity of a Russian response, but Russia has shown it's willing to strike near NATO territory. Russian missiles hit a base near Ukraine's border with Poland on Sunday and an aircraft-repair facility in Lviv, also near the border, on Friday.

"The Russians used missiles to hit targets that are very close to the Polish border. One of those missiles hits Poland, President Biden has made very clear that it'll be considered an attack on NATO, and then you do have a world war on your hands," Leon Panetta, a former secretary of defense, said this week at George Mason University event.

"I think this is a dangerous moment," Panetta said, adding that the risk isn't "just a missile that goes astray. It's bad judgment. It's somebody who makes a lousy decision."

Experts and former officials say the nature of the conflict, with uniformed troops from a nuclear-armed power in combat near NATO forces, mean even a limited clash carries more risk.

Others argue a clash with Russia wouldn't necessarily escalate, citing previous encounters — including the Battle of Khasham, an hours-long firefight between US-led and Russian-led forces in northeastern Syria.

'Those guys got lit up'

US Marines Syria — US artillery in Syria.
Sgt. Matthew Callahan/US Marine Corps

The clash on February 7, 2018, was sparked by a pro-Assad regime force, including mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group, advancing on an outpost manned by US special operators and their Kurdish partners.

That night, the pro-regime force opened fire on the outpost with a mix of tanks and large artillery and mortars, according to documents seen by The New York Times. The US force at the outpost — made up of US Army Delta Force, Special Forces, and Rangers soldiers — took cover and returned fire with anti-tank missiles and machine guns.

The US and Russia had used a de-confliction line to avoid encounters as they operated in Syria, and US officials used it again at the outset of the attack, asking Russian officials to stop the attack but without success.

When Wagner personnel began to bracket the US position, firing artillery on either side to pinpoint their aim, other US forces were "cleared hot" and opened fire, an official told Aaron Stein, director of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

two US military vehicles with service members, a us flag, and guns atop them drive across open terrain with the sun either rising or setting in the backgound — Members of 5th Special Forces Group (A) conducting 50. Cal Weapons training during counter ISIS operations at Al Tanf Garrison in southern Syria on November 22, 2017.
US Marine Corps

Russian jets were in the air but were held at bay by US aircraft, according to Stein's account. The strikes by US drones, fighter jets, bombers, gunships, attack helicopters, and artillery that followed are believed to have killed 200 to 300 pro-regime fighters, including many Russians.

"The Russian high command in Syria assured us it was not their people," then-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told senators in April 2018. "My direction to the Chairman [of the Joint Chiefs] was the force then was to be annihilated. And it was."

Moscow has close ties to Wagner Group and is Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad's main backer, but it chose to stand aside at Khasham, Stein told Insider.

"The Russians claimed they weren't theirs, and so those guys got lit up and lit up badly," Stein said.

The Soviets acted similarly in Cold War conflicts, according to Noel Maurer, a professor of international affairs at George Washington University.

"Some pundits have averred that because the Soviet Union sent its pilots to engage with American air forces in 1951 Korea, then NATO can send its pilots to engage in 2022 Ukraine," Maurer said Wednesday, pointing to a New York Times op-ed.

TV tower in Kyiv, Ukraine, is hit by an airstrike.
Ukraine NOW

But during that war, Maurer added, Joseph Stalin "went out of his way to plausibly deny Soviet involvement" and to signal a desire to avoid escalation "no matter what."

"Needless to say, Putin is not maintaining discreet silence, claiming that only proxies are invading Ukraine, or signaling a willingness to lose," Maurer said.

Asked about the battle by Sen. Tom Cotton during a hearing this week, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, head of US Central Command, said it "tells you a lot" about US capabilities and showed that mercenaries would have "a qualitative disadvantage."

"Also if they're fighting against an extremely determined people that are digging their heels within their homeland, like the Ukrainian army, that maybe we shouldn't think that they or even Russian regulars are 10 feet tall," Cotton said, drawing agreement from McKenzie.

Stein, who has researched and written about the air war over Syria and the Battle of Khasham, said Russia's response to an attack on its forces in Ukraine would differ from its response at Khasham.

"I think the two issues are not comparable in the slightest bit," Stein said. "If you have NATO forces come across that border, the Russians are going to do something. It may not necessarily lead to direct escalation right away, but it's not going to help things."

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