Oligarchs speaking out against the war signal that Putin is losing his grip on Russia's elite, says the head of the Justice Department's KleptoCapture group

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) toasts holding a glass of vodka with Deputy Defense Minister Valery Gerasimov (R) and Presidential Administration Chief of Staff Sergei Ivanov (C).

Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

• A Justice Dept. head discussed the impact of Russian oligarch sanctions in a CNN interview.
• He said oligarchs' statements against the war represent "Putin's grip on these people" wavering.
• Several members of Russia's elite broke ranks with the Kremlin by calling for peace with Ukraine.

Several Russian oligarchs have publicly broadcasted their opposition to the Ukraine war — a sign that Putin is losing his grip on the country's elite, the head of the Justice Department's KleptoCapture group told CNN in an interview published Friday.

While discussing the impact of sanctioning Russian oligarchs, KleptoCapture lead Andrew Adams pointed to statements made "by people who previously were actively supportive of the Kremlin or criminally silent about its actions, who have now come forward to complain about the latest effort to inflict damage in Ukraine."

"That is the signal that I would look for in terms of the solidity and stability of Putin's grip on these people," he added.

Sanctioned billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska were some of the first Russian businessmen to share their disapproval of the invasion, a rare showing of public disagreement with the Kremlin. 

Fridman, the founder of Russia's largest private bank and one of the country's richest men, later told Bloomberg that it would be "suicide" to directly challenge Putin on the war and said oligarchs like him have no influence over the president.

Very few oligarchs have gone as far as to criticize Putin directly — and those that have said they swiftly paid the price.

Russian entrepreneur Oleg Tinkov told The New York Times that the Putin administration forced him to sell his 35% share in the digital bank Tinkoff after he harshly critiqued the Kremlin's military campaign on Instagram. 

"I couldn't discuss the price," Tinkov told the Times. "It was like a hostage — you take what you are offered. I couldn't negotiate."

Despite the uncommon pushback from Russia's oligarchs, experts say it's unlikely that sanctioning oligarchs will have any real sway over the Kremlin's military decisions. 

"Right now, the reality is that the only person who is going to change Putin's mind is Putin himself," Tom Keatinge, the founding director of the Centre for Financial Crime and Security Studies (CFCS) at RUSI, told Insider last month. "Sanctioning oligarchs is a PR exercise.  It has value as it keeps the conflict in the public eye, but it seems highly unlikely any one of the sanctions oligarchs is going to change his calculus."

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