Russia will lose its relevance in OPEC+ as sanctions continue to weigh on oil production, top energy analyst says

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• Russia could lose its influence in OPEC+, a top energy analyst predicts.
• "Russia is going to slip out of this cartel over time," Dan Pickering told CNBC Friday.
• Pickering added that OPEC will lean more on Saudi Arabia and the UAE as alternative sources.

Russia will become less relevant to the OPEC+ group over time, a top energy analyst told CNBC Friday.

Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, thinks that sanctions from the US and EU will continue to mount and weigh on the Kremlin and force Europe to more heavily rely on other sources to streamline oil supply. 

"Russia will, by default, slowly start to see its production decline," Pickering said. "It'll  become less relevant in this cartel group as Europe and the rest of the world starts to sanction Russia."

Russia is not an official member of OPEC. The Kremlin has played a large role in the body since 2016 in organizing exports of oil. 

Pickering added that OPEC lacks a strong reserve of oil supply besides that of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to keep prices level. OPEC will need to lean on a handful of countries, Pickering says, in order to boost supply and fully pivot away from Russian oil.

He noted that President Biden's latest trip to Saudi Arabia is a sign of desperation to bring consumer gas prices down. 

"It's a somewhat unusual situation for the US to be hat-in-hand, but that's where it's at," Pickering said. 

Russia has pivoted away from European buyers as sanctions seek to cripple its oil output and has been selling more of its supply to Asia and China. Beijing has benefited from Russia's fall from grace and is snatching up oil at steep discounts. 

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