Major Russian losses in recent offensive around Avdiivka likely to be among the worst of 2023, UK intel says

Ukrainian service members of the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade fire towards Russian troops near the village of Avdiivka in Donetsk region in May 2023.

REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi

• Russia has been carrying out a major offensive effort to capture the city of Avdiivka in east Ukraine.
• Russia has committed parts of eight brigades to the "heavy but inconclusive" fighting, the UK MoD says.
• The UK Ministry of Defence said Russia's losses are some of the highest of the year.

Recent Russian losses in its assault on the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka are likely to be some of the highest of the year, the UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Saturday.

In mid-October, Russia began a major offensive effort to capture the city in Donetsk, which resulted in significant Russian losses both in terms of personnel and equipment. 

Russia has probably committed elements of up to eight brigades to the fighting, which is "heavy but inconclusive," the UK department said. These groups have likely some of the highest casualty rates of the year.

Russian military bloggers have been "harshly critical" of the tactics of the Avdiivka operation, according to UK intel.

Ukraine says Russia lost more than 6,000 soldiers in one week in its latest offensive and it claimed to have destroyed nearly 50 Russian tanks in one day, during the intense fighting.

The Russian political establishment continues to push for more territory to be occupied, but Russia's military is struggling to carry out successful assaults, the department noted.

It indicates that Russia's "core military-political challenge remains the same as it has throughout most of the war," the department said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed this week that Russia had lost at least a brigade in its attempts to take Avdiivka. 

The think tank the Institute for the Study of War previously observed that it is unclear why Russia has spent so much effort and resources on trying to take Avdiivka, as it will not open new routes of advance to the rest of Donetsk.

The Russian military's continued attempts to take it, despite of heavy losses, suggests either that Russian forces believe they can take the city, or that military command is poorly prioritizing offensive operations regardless of their cost, the think tank said.

While Russia has never confirmed the number of casualties in Ukraine, Western estimates have placed it approximately 300,000.

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