Tech M&A could peak this year, and dealmakers are already cooling on their outlook for 2019 (MSFT, ADBE)

Github / Satya Nadella

Optimism is declining in tech M&A, even though 2018 is on pace to set a new record for the value of companies that have changed hands.
Only 43% of survey respondents expect to see the number of tech deals grow in the near future, according to Morrison & Foerster and 451 Research.
That's down sharply from six months ago, when there was 66% optimism in April 2018.

Eternal optimism about the health of the tech M&A market is waning for the first time in two years.

Only 43% of tech M&A leaders surveyed expect to see the number of acquisitions grow in the near future, according to a survey of 115 industry insiders by Morrison & Foerster and 451 Research.

That's down significantly from 66% of respondents surveyed in April 2018, and 51% surveyed in September 2017.

The last time so few respondents were bullish on M&A was in April 2016, when an economic downturn resulted in a decline in the number of deals.

While optimism is declining, only 16% of respondents expect to see deal activity slow down in the near future, according to the survey, while 41% of respondents are neither bullish or bearish about the future of tech M&A.

And there's good reason. While an unruly stock market may point to a downturn, more than $425 billion worth of tech companies has already changed hands this year, according to the survey, and the industry is on track to end the year close to, if not past, the 2015 record of $575 billion.

With huge checks being written this year in deals like Microsoft/GitHub and Adobe/Marketo, it's no wonder 2018 is on track to set a record of its own.