RESULTS: Republicans poised to flip a South Texas-based House seat in special election

2022 Texas 34th District Special Election — Insider

A special election is taking place in Texas' 34th Congressional District. Polls close at 7 p.m. CT and 8 p.m. ET.

The race & the stakes:

Republicans are poised to flip a majority-Hispanic South Texas House seat on Tuesday — but they may only hold onto the soon-to-be-defunct district for just a few months.

The special election will replace former Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela, who resigned from Congress in March to take a job at Akim Gump, a prestigious Washington lobbying and law firm.

Four candidates, two Democrats and two Republicans, are running in Tuesday's special election. If no candidate earns over 50% of the vote outright, the top two will head to an August runoff.

The winner of the special election will only serve out the rest of Vela's unfinished term until January 2023 — at which point the district, under its current lines, will cease to exist due to the once-in-a-decade redrawing of congressional lines following the 2020 Census.

Texas lawmakers redrew the 34th district to be significantly more favorable to Democrats in redistricting. The old 34th District voted for President Joe Biden by just four points in 2020, but the newly-redrawn district would have backed Biden by over 15 points, according to the Texas Tribune.

Democratic Rep. Vincente Gonzalez, who currently represents Texas' 15th District, announced, with Vela's full backing, that he would move districts and run to represent the 34th District for a full term after the new congressional lines made the 15th District more competitive but the 34th safer.

The leading candidates in the special election are Mayra Flores, a healthcare worker and local Republican activist, and Democratic Daniel Sanchez, a lawyer. Flores is heavily favored to win the special election, having raised nearly $1.1 million and spent $977,000 compared to only $146,000 raised and $42,000 spent by Sanchez.

National Republican groups have also poured over $350,000 of independent expenditure spending into the district towards electing Flores. The biggest chunk of outside money, over $200,000, has come from the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, in addition to investments by FreedomWorks and Americans for Prosperity Action.

House Majority PAC, aligned with House Democratic leadership, has invested a smaller sum of $115,000 towards independent expenditures opposing Flores, with national Democrats opting to focus their resources elsewhere in the lead-up to the November midterms given the Democratic lean of the new 34th District.

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