Ukraine's Kursk counteroffensive defied NATO predictions and shows Kyiv has its eye on the US election, experts say

The Ukrainian army entered Russia's Kursk region on August 6.

ROMAN PILIPEY/ Getty Images

• Ukraine launched an offensive into Russia's Kursk region last week.
• The incursion came as a surprise to both Russia and the West.
• Some NATO officials thought Ukraine may have to wait another year to launch a counteroffensive.

In July, NATO officials said Ukraine may have to wait another year before launching a new counteroffensive against Russian forces.

That assessment was based on delays in Western support, particularly US Congress's slow approval of military aid, Daniel S. Hamilton, a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University SAIS, told Business Insider.

But last week, Ukraine launched a surprise attack into Russia's Kursk region, catching Russian forces off guard and forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to divert some troops from Ukraine.

After months of relentless Russian assaults on Ukrainian territory, it seemed as if Ukraine would be condemned to a slow and merciless retreat in eastern Ukraine.

But the new push into Kursk will serve as a timely reminder to international allies that the war's outcome is not a foregone conclusion.

This is particularly important ahead of the upcoming US elections, which Ukraine is acutely aware of, Hamilton said.

Should Trump win, there is a serious threat that he would cut military aid to Ukraine, with the former president saying in June that he would immediately "have that settled."

Kyiv is, therefore, likely trying to put itself in the best possible position should it have to enter negotiations with Russia.

"Politically, the purpose of the operation is to build leverage ahead of possible negotiations," Jack Watling, a senior research fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote in the Guardian.

"The Ukrainian government wants to make sure that if it has to enter that process, it has things that Russia wants to trade for concessions," he added. "The Ukrainian military, therefore, must take and hold a sizeable chunk of Russian land for the duration of potential negotiations."

A Ukrainian military vehicle near the border with Russia during the Kursk incursion in August, 2024.

Libkos via Getty Images

Hamilton said that Ukraine's new strategy demonstrates its ability to conduct complex operations involving a number of military assets, bolstering its standing on the battlefield by showing that it can actively shape the conflict.

How long it can continue such an operation remains to be seen, however.

The ability to maintain momentum depends on the continued replenishment of its forces, something that remains uncertain, Hamilton added.

Nevertheless, the incursion may have kickstarted a shift in Western policy.

While the West has been reluctant to allow Ukraine to strike Russia, a number of members have signaled their support for Ukraine's moves in Kursk — including Germany, which has often been reluctant to risk provoking Putin.

"Ukraine has the right to self defense enshrined in international law," Germany's foreign ministry said in a statement to Politico earlier this month. "This is not limited to its own territory."

The Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment of the conflict on Saturday that it was "too early to assess the outcomes and operational significance of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia."

But it added that due to the scale of the conflict in the Russia-Ukraine war, the advance in Kursk and Russia's operations in eastern Ukraine were likely not "decisive military operations" that would win the war.

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